Friday, January 25, 2019

Of Tech Bubble 2.0

                   In the 1990s companies such as Google and Microsoft were experiencing success that made investors euphoric.  Also, computers allowed financial companies to engage in high frequency trading of securities such as stocks and bonds.  This means that the financial began to fail to reflect genuine human activity.  By the late 1990s, the stock prices of most tech companies was overvalued and jobs were going overseas due to outsourcing.  Furthermore, automation was destroying many working class jobs.  It is important to note that during this era the Clinton administration repealed important regulations intended to ensure the stability of the financial system.  One of these regulations being the Glass-Steagal Act which seperated commercial banking from risky investment banks.  Investment banks tend to make risky trades.  While commercial banks if kept seperated from investment banks would not engage in risky trading.  In the late 1990s the stock market collapse as investors realized tech stocks were overvalued and sold of shares of tech stock en mass.  The economy fell into a brief reccession.  Also, on the eve of this recession manufacturing companies had trouble keeping up with the demand for cars as a growing number of consumers borrowed money to buy cars.  This caused automobile companies and their suppliers to suffer as a great deal of revenue was lost.  A few years later the events of 9/11 caused the economy to suffer once again.  The U.S entered into a war in Afganistan that would cost over a trillion dollars in the following decade with little results to show for it. 
            Currently, companies such as Amazon and Apple are having unprecendented success.  Apple is selling Iphones like hot cakes and Amazon is the gold standard for online retail.  Also, Amazon brought Wholefoods which means that the corporate giant will have a great deal of control of the food supply.  Financial firms are using articial intellingence (AI) to engage in high frequency trading and using algorithms to determine trading decisions.  Indeed, financial markets no longer reflects genuine human activity.  There have been a number of flash crashes in recent years in which a stock market will crash then go right back up.  Also, globalization has accelerated as countries such as China flood the market of western countries with cheap manufactured goods.  It is important to note that cost of production in developing countries such as China is far lower because of low labor costs and a loose environmental regulations.  Furthermore, even more jobs are being lost to automtation and self driving cars are being developed by Google that could eventually replace truck drivers.  Tech stocks are once again greatly overvalued and this is the second major tech bubble.  This has major economic and cultural implications.  For when the tech bubble collapses, a minor recession could result. This reccession would be world wide and those burdened with debt would be the most impacted.  Economist, business leaders, and government officials need to admit to the economic risks posed by Tech Bubble 2.0.  Also, individuals need to save a greater percentage of their disposable income.  As I've mentioned in previous blogs buying local and using credit unions can counter balance the power of the globalists.  It would also revive the local economy.       

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