Sunday, January 20, 2019

Of The Collapse of The European Union

                  In 1999 the European Union (E.U) was founded as a free trade agreement and a currency union to encourage trade and tourism across the continent.  Thus, the Euro was established as a currency to be used amongst E.U members and goods flowed seemlesly between countries.  Since then the free trade agreement has produced winners and losers.  For example, Germany exports manufactured goods to the rest of Europe and America while countries such as the U.K have a weak manufacturing industry.  This trend has increased Germany political clout in the E.U.  In 2012 a number of Southern European countries had a national debt problem.  In Greece the government almost defaulted on its debt.  Germany bailed out Greece, but on the conditions that Greece agree to cut government spending on programs such as welfare.  These government spending cuts only increased social unrest and made the economy even worse.  This led to an increase in the interest rate Greece pays on national debt.  Consequently, Greece's natioanl debt increased and youth unemployment soared upward.  Many citizens in Greece were not even paying taxes and brain drain is on the rise.  Many scientist and other well educated professionals are leaving the country.  Greece's socialist policies created a trap in that once the economy is too dependent on government spending the government cannot cut spending without making the economy worse and causing interest rates on government debt to rise.
             Socialism is wide spread throughout Europe as these countries have welfare programs that go beyond the welfare programs in America.  Also, some countries have the government in conrol over certain industries while the rest of the industries are in the hands of the free market.  Some countries have been smart about these policies while others have failed.  For example, in Sweden the government does not overexten itself the way Greece does ensuring that every program is funded. These programs include pensions; support for the unemployed that includes benefits, job training, retraining and job creation; disability and sickness benefits; health care; parental leave; child allowances; financial assistance for families with disabled children; and decent housing for all.  Unlike in Greece most Swedens pay taxes and due to a stable economy does not experience brain drain.  Sweden restructured its welfare programs in the 1990s.  Thus, promoting fiscal stability.  In 1990s a recession hit Sweden and unemployment was widespread.  Before the recession unemployment was avergining 2 percent and the government frequently had budget surpluses.  Also, poverty and income inequality was low by international standards and still is to this day.  It is important to note that the Swedish government motivation for fiscal and tax reform in the late 1990s was to meet the criteria to join the E.U.  Tax reform largely benefited the wealthy and fiscal reform meant cutting back welfare programs.  In the 1990s globalization was causing jobs to be outsource and imports to compete with domestically produced goods.  Joining the E.U would eventually make these issues worse.  Sweden joined the E.U on Janurary 1st, 1995.  However, despite the influx of imports and increase in outsourcing Sweden's economy has remained relatively stable.
                Greece is not the only European country to experience issues with government debt in 2012.  Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland all have high levels of government debt relative to GDP (Gross Domestic Product).  These countries also have high youth unemployment and the interest rates on government debt in these countries have increased.  Political problems have occured as a result of the economic downturn.  In Italy the Five Star Movement party came to power in 2018 and there was a leadership challenge in Spain the same year.  Recently, in France the Yellow Jacket Movement is incouraging people to protest France's socialist policies and the E.U.  I suspect that given the clout Germany has that Spain and Italy's leadership are quietly talking to each other.  In the summer of 2016 the U.K voted in a referendum to leave the E.U.  Since the referendum May has failed to negotiate a good exit deal with the European Union.  This has caused two unsuccesful no confidence votes and making a hard Brexit likely.  A hard Brexit may be the way to go at this point.  Other countries such as Italy are considering leaving the E.U.
                    As I've mentioned in previous blogs, Europe is being flooded by migrants from the Middle East and North Africa.  Most of these migrants are men between the ages of 18 and 25 claiming to be under 18 so that they can recieve welfare.  It is important to note that some groups of these migrants are practicing Sheria Law amongst their fellow migrants.  This means that they are disobeying the law of the country they migrated to.         

References

"The Ups and Downs of the Swedish Welfare State: General Trends, Benefits and Caregiving"
by Helen Lachs Gisburg and Marguerite G. Rosenthal
(Please note that this is a 2006 article. I used it because it highlights the events of the 1990s recession and the policies implemeted in order for Sweden to join the E.U)
http://newpol.org/content/ups-and-downs-swedish-welfare-state-general-trends-benefits-and-caregiving


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